GFAN AP Partner Updates Call #3

by | Apr 1, 2025 | Campaigns, Eighth Replenishment, News & Updates, Resources, Webinars

The Global Fund Advocates Network Asia-Pacific (GFAN AP) hosted a third webinar on 20 March 2025 to share updates with partners and stakeholders on GFAN AP activities over the past 5 months as well as an overview of #MoreNowThanEver campaign plans and activities in the coming months leading up to the Eighth Replenishment, while providing a space to seek feedback and identify opportunities for collaborations and synergies. The call was also a channel to share the Global Fund Eighth Replenishment Investment Case in more detail with Asia Pacific partners.

The call was attended by over 30 participants and opened with welcome remarks by Blessina Kumar (Chair, GFAN AP Steering Committee and CEO, Global Coalition of TB Advocates). The call was moderated by Jennifer Ho (Operations and Programmes Manager, GFAN AP).

1. The Global Fund Eighth Replenishment Investment Case | Johannes Hunger

The webinar commenced with a presentation by Johannes Hunger (Chief Advisor and Head of Special Projects, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria) on the Eighth Replenishment Investment Case. The key points presented by Johannes are summarised below:

What resources are needed?
  • The Eighth Replenishment Investment Case is developed by the Modeling Guidance Group for the Global Fund, which includes technical partners and subject matter experts in modelling, economics and epidemiology, and is chaired by Professor Timothy Hallett.
  • The first step in the analysis is determining the overall resource needs across HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria for the 2027-2029 period in countries where the Global Fund invests. This resource need is based on partners’ global plans, which currently total US$146.6 billion for the next three years, an increase of roughly US$10 billion from the last replenishment.
  • The next step is to estimate available resources against these needs, considering:
    • Domestic Resources: A new methodology developed by Stephen Resch (Harvard University) estimates US$69.7 billion based on reported latest expenditures and International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected economic growth.
    • Non-Global Fund External Financing: Estimated at US$23.6 billion, based on flatlined approximations of the last three reported amounts of external financing from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) database.
    • The Global Fund’s contribution: With a fully resourced Eighth Replenishment, the Global Fund would contribute a further US$18 billion.
  • Adding the three categories of available resources together, the total projected available resources of US$111.3 billion would only cover approximately 79% of the identified resource needs. This amount is the minimum that is needed in order to achieve the impact that we have set out to achieve.

Trends and projections of combined mortality rate against Global Plans
  • Despite continued year-on-year reductions in actual mortality rates, the trajectory of the trend is currently not on track to successfully achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets for HIV, TB and malaria by 2030.
  • In a scenario with no scale-up from the current coverage percentages, we project no further reductions, but rather an increase in the mortality rates. This is a scenario that we must avoid.
  • With a successful US$18 billion contribution to the Global Fund, we would be able to bend the curve and potentially reduce mortality rates by a further 60% and get relatively close to the SDG targets. US$18 billion is needed if we wish to stay within reach of the overall SDGs and hit the Global Fund Strategy (2023-2028) targets.
  • A successful Eighth Replenishment would represent 23 million lives saved, over 400 million new infections averted, and a 54% reduction in incidence rates across the three diseases by 2029.
Disease-specific impact
  • HIV: With a successful replenishment, the global plan targets for HIV incidence and mortality reduction appear within reach.
  • TB: A successful replenishment would sustain momentum, with projected reductions of 26% in new TB cases and 57% in TB deaths between 2023 and 2029, and putting the world within reach of the 2035 End TB Strategy targets.
  • Malaria: A successful replenishment is crucial to prevent rebounds and is projected to reduce malaria cases by 57% and deaths by 65% between 2023 and 2029, making significant progress towards the global plan.
Economic and Health System Returns:
  • The projected return on investment is estimated at 1:19 in terms of intrinsic monetary health gains, and 1:3.5 in terms of pure productivity gains.
  • An US$18 billion replenishment could generate over US$300 billion in economic returns over the next three years.
  • Global inequality in life expectancy could be reduced by a further 7% between 2023 and 2029.
  • Progress in the three diseases is projected to free up $42 billion in savings or averted costs in primary health systems between 2024 and 2029.

Health and Community Systems Strengthening:
  • Approximately one-third (US$6 billion) of the US$18 billion replenishment amount would contribute to strengthening health and community systems.
  • A case study from Malawi suggests that investing in health systems strengthening alongside expansion of services can lead to a 35% greater reduction in the burden of the three diseases and also avert other deaths.
Universal Health Coverage (UHC):
  • The Global Fund considers UHC a serious goal, focusing on equitable access to services. In Global Fund-supported countries, the UHC service coverage index score improved from 37% to 58% over the past two decades.
  • Over two-thirds of this improvement is attributed to progress made in the fight against the three diseases.
  • A successful Eighth Replenishment could further increase the UHC service coverage index from 58% to 67% by 2029.
Questions & Answers
  • Sonal Mehta (Vice-President, Projects at ECHO India) asked if there were more specific figures on the Global Fund’s investments towards supporting communities during programme implementation. 
    • Johannes shared that there are investment figures for community health workers and in community systems in the larger report, and that the Investment Case chapter related to Resilient and Sustainable Systems for Health (RSSH) lays out expectations for future investments in these areas. Historical breakdowns of investments, including funds going towards community workers would be available in the Global Fund’s Results Report.
  • Rachel Ong (Regional Coordinator, GFAN AP) asked for clarification on the difference between the return-of-investment (ROI) figures between the Seventh and Eighth Replenishment Investment Cases.
    • Johannes explained that the ROI calculations during the previous replenishment was significantly higher due to the then-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The ROI figure of 1:31 was calculated with reference to the counterfactual of continued covid disruption unique to that time, resulting in an outlier, whereas the Eighth Replenishment’s ROI figure of 1:19 is consistent and in line with calculations for the Sixth Replenishment Investment Case.
  • Pauline Mazue (Advocacy Specialist, The Global Fund) provided some additional context regarding current advocacy efforts following the launch of the Investment Case, such as meetings and advocacy events organised by partners in donor countries to engage with donors on figures and key points from the Investment Case.
  • Abdul Malik Ndebugri asked how do we ensure Global Fund investments benefit communities more directly especially in the context of the recent funding crisis. On a similar note, Rachel Ong asked if there are any considerations from the Global Fund Secretariat given the recent withdrawal of funding from some global health donors, given that the Investment Case was finalised before this recent development.
    • Johannes shared that the Global Fund is aware of the disruptions to life-saving services caused by the funding cuts and is working with partners to mitigate these effects, while potentially reprioritising available funding to address the highest needs. However, the Global Fund is also under pressure and does not have any additional funds to work with, either. In the context of the Investment Case calculations, about 60% of the US$23.6 billion non-Global Fund external financing comes from the US, which is now potentially at risk. That said, looking at it in terms of the total resources available, the amount represents a smaller 10-15% of the US$111 billion total. While this does present a projected risk, which is acknowledged within the Investment Case, it also underscores the importance of hitting the Global Fund’s US$18 billion replenishment target as a bare minimum more than ever.

Analysis of the Eighth Replenishment Investment Case by Global Fund Advocates Network (GFAN)

Quentin Batréau (Research and Advocacy Lead, GFAN) presented an analysis of the Investment Case, key points as follows:

  • GFAN regrets that the Investment Case projections still include a funding gap, which could allow donor countries to justify ongoing gaps.
  • Overall, however, GFAN finds the US$18 billion target to be ambitious and welcomes that it was not reduced, despite and with acknowledgement to the challenging economic situations in many donor countries.
  • GFAN appreciates the Investment Case’s strong and continued stance in discussions on climate change, key populations, and human rights, demonstrating commitment to the Global Fund’s values.
  • Advocacy efforts need to focus on two key “fights” for resource mobilisation:
    • First is securing strong pledges for the Eighth Replenishment.
    • Second is ensuring the conversion of pledges from the Seventh Replenishment into actual contributions. Some countries of focus here include France, Sweden, and the Netherlands.

2. GFAN AP Campaign Updates & Planned Activities | Ken Khoo & Rachel Ong

Ken Khoo (Communications Officer, GFAN AP) presented about GFAN AP’s Eighth Replenishment campaign titled “Moments that define us… #MoreNowThanEver”. Key points are summarised below:

  • The campaign aims to highlight the urgency and importance of a fully resourced Global Fund during this defining moment for global health.
  • Recognising that this Replenishment will likely be the most difficult yet, the campaign was developed through close consultation with partners to identify key messages and sentiments to convey to donors.
  • The campaign highlights the need for not only more money, but equally importantly, more commitment, more action, and more accountability from all stakeholders involved.
  • The #MoreNowThanEver campaign video is available on GFAN AP’s YouTube channel with subtitles in 9 languages and counting.
    • Campaign symbol: five pointed stars, which represents hope, good fortune, guidance during challenging times, unity despite diversities, love, support, health, and protection.
    • The campaign has four thematic areas: Let Communities Lead, Connect The Gaps, Uphold Accountability For All, and Protect Our Rights, Our Lives.
    • Further details are available on the campaign landing page.
  • The communications strategy for the campaign include:
    • Curation of a communications & social media toolkit for communities and civil society partners available on GFAN AP’s website.
    • Production of physical collaterals during in-person engagements and events.
    • Release of targeted statements and letters during international health days and other seasonal times, targeted at donors and embassies.
    • Organisation of embassy events to bring together stakeholders.
  • A key activity for this replenishment will be folding paper stars as a community action, allowing people to write messages. This will be prominent during physical events.

Rachel Ong provided an overview of GFAN AP’s activities since the previous updates call, and planned activities in the coming months:

  • Overview of GFAN AP’s activities since October 2024:
  • Planned activities for 2025:
    • A new webinar series on innovative financing and domestic resource mobilisation (DRM) to support country partners given the current funding environment.
    • Discussions on G20 and TICAD 9, with a planned webinar in April for coordination and strategy development with partners.
    • Embassy events planned in Indonesia and India, with others being explored.
    • Collaborations with newer partners such as Global TB Caucus and Asia Pacific Malaria Leaders Alliance (APLMA).
    • Ensuring community and civil society participation in 9th Asia Pacific Leaders’ Summit on Malaria Elimination in Bali.
    • Engagement with Seven Alliance partners and Africa Japan Forum around the upcoming Asia Pacific AIDS & Co-Infections Conference 2025 (APACC) meeting in Tokyo.
    • Release of international health-related day statements.
    • Embassy visits from April onwards, with a more targeted approach for this replenishment, spacing out visits to specific donors over different months.
    • Providing specific language and support to country partners for embassy visits and engagement activities.
  • A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed with Seven Alliance partners in February 2025 to outline ways of working together moving forward.

3. Closing

Rachel concluded the call with appreciation to participants for their support and interest in the Global Fund and GFAN AP during this replenishment year and amidst these challenging times, and an open ask for mutual collaboration and support to partners.

SPEAKER:

Johannes Hunger

Johannes Hunger

Chief Advisor and Head of Special Projects, The Global Fund

PRESENTATIONS: